Like Emily a couple of weeks ago, the storm that’s headed this way is a cliff hanger. Will it strengthen into something stronger than a tropical wave by the time it reaches the area? Will the track wobble just a bit to make it even more of a threat? Or less of a problem?
As things stood Friday afternoon, meteorologist Krizia Negron at the National Weather Service in San Juan advised residents to have their boarding up materials on hand in case battening down the hatches becomes necessary.
“We’ll have a better idea Saturday morning,” she said.
The National Hurricane Center gives the system a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Whether the wave develops into a depression or even a tropical storm by the time it reaches the territory, residents can still expect rain, Negron said.
Friday afternoon the large tropical wave was about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The computer models currently take the center about 100 miles south of St. Croix. Negron said that the territory can expect to see the outer bands of the storm Sunday morning with conditions deteriorating as the day progresses.
The tropical wave is now surrounded by dry air, which is impeding development, but Negron said the dry air will decrease as the wave moves west across the Lesser Antilles.
“So the system will have the opportunity to organize better,” she said.
Negron was concerned that people aren’t paying attention because it’s the weekend.
“But we’re in hurricane season so you should be ready,” she said.
According to a press release from the V.I. Territorial Emergency Management Agency, VITEMA has placed its emergency operations centers on alert for possible activation this weekend as it continues to monitor the system for development.
“We are in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and it’s important that everyone continue to closely monitor developing weather disturbances and that we remain vigilant and ensure that we are ready,” said Elton Lewis, VITEMA director.
There’s another storm out there in the Atlantic that shows even more rapid signs of development but so far computer models show it heading northeast of the territory.
The 2011 hurricane season is just beginning to ramp up, with the peak coming in mid-September. It runs through Nov. 30.
