Monitoring Tropical Storm Ernesto | Ongoing Weather Updates

11:30 p.m. Tuesday

An 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday reports that Tropical Storm Ernesto is moving across the U.S. Virgin Islands. The islands have been whipped with heavy rain and gusty winds on Tuesday night.

The 11 p.m. NHC update reported that Tropical Storm Ernesto was located about 35 miles northwest of St. Thomas, USVI. The strong tropical storm is moving toward the northwest at approximately 17 mph, packing maximum sustained winds of roughly 65 mph. The cyclone is anticipated to strengthen as it moves away from the territory.

“Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts,” according to the 11 p.m. update from the NHC. “Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico,” the NHC said.

The U.S. Virgin Islands have experienced strong winds throughout Tuesday night.

“Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center [of the storm], [and] Henry E. Rohlsen Airport in St. Croix recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h),” the NHC explained.

While Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to move away from the USVI, inclement weather is expected to continue through at least Wednesday.

“Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early Wednesday, with hurricane conditions possible on the Virgin Islands, [and] Culebra, and Vieques [in Puerto Rico],” the NHC warned.

“Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides over the Virgin Islands and into portions of Puerto Rico [on Tuesday night] through Wednesday,” the NHC stated.

Weather alerts, including a Tropical Storm Warning, a Hurricane Watch, and a Flood Watch remain in effect. Additionally, marine weather conditions will be hazardous across the region. The territory will continue to be under a Coastal Flood Advisory, a High Surf Advisory, and a High Rip Current Risk.

Finally, Bermuda may experience impacts from Ernesto in the coming days, and individuals traveling to or from the island are encouraged to monitor the situation closely.

Weather Updates

USVI residents and visitors are encouraged to sign up for weather alerts from Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency and to follow the National Hurricane Center for the latest tropical updates.

The Source Weather Page also publishes a daily weather forecast and offers readers the opportunity to view weather forecast videos and disaster preparedness video segments.

12:15 p.m. Tuesday

An 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday reports that Tropical Storm Ernesto has continued to intensify slightly as it moves toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the USVI, the British Virgin Islands, and Vieques and Culebra in Puerto Rico.

According to the update, Ernesto was located about 155 miles east-southeast of St. Croix, USVI. The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at approximately 18 mph and is now packing maximum sustained winds of roughly 50 mph. The storm is expected to move across or near the local islands on Tuesday night.

“A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so,” according to the NHC update.

“Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts,” the NHC said. “Additional strengthening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by early Wednesday,” the NHC added.

The NHC had predicted that Ernesto would intensify into a hurricane after passing across the USVI and Puerto Rico. However, the 11 a.m. update revealed that a Hurricane Watch was issued due to the possibility of Ernesto intensifying faster than expected as it moves into an area of reduced windshear and over extremely warm ocean water temperatures, factors which can support the intensification of a cyclone.

“[Cyclone reconnaissance] aircraft data, satellite images, and radar data show that the storm is becoming better organized, and there are some indications that an inner core [of the system] is developing,” the NHC stated.

“Sea surface temperatures near Ernesto in the northeastern Caribbean Sea are very warm, [approximately] 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, [about 86 degrees Fahrenheit], and vertical shear in the atmosphere is relatively light,” the NHC said. “Combined with the [indication] that Ernesto is developing an inner core, these ingredients favor quick strengthening over the next day or so,” the NHC continued.

Cyclone Impacts

As reported earlier, the National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has explained that impacts from Ernesto will include gusty winds, rainfall, flash flooding, and hazardous seas. The USVI and Puerto Rico may receive between four and eight inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, and breaking waves could reach up to 17 feet across portions of the waters surrounding the islands, it said.

“Sustained winds are forecast to range from 35 to 55 mph across the USVI and portions of Culebra and Vieques, with gusts between 70 to 90 mph,” as the storm passes the islands, according to an update from the NWS. “Across the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, winds up to 35 mph with gusts between 50 to 70 mph are possible” on Tuesday night, the NWS warned.

“Rainbands will continue to increase across the islands through the rest of the day, with flooding rains increasing across the USVI and Puerto Rico” on Tuesday night, it said. “Flash floods, mudslides, and tropical storm-force winds remain as the main hazards, as well as hazardous seas and life-threatening rip currents across all coastal areas of the islands.”

In addition to a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch, the USVI is under a Flood Watch and a High Rip Current Risk. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory will go into effect later Tuesday evening and will last until Wednesday night.

Staying Informed

 The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, will provide continuous updates on the storm, and detailed information can be found on the NWS website.

Weather forecast information, including severe weather alerts, is also available from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.

Additionally, the Source Weather Page publishes a daily weather forecast and offers readers the opportunity to view weather forecast videos and disaster preparedness video segments.

An 8 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday has explained that Tropical Storm Ernesto has slightly intensified as it moves toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The system is forecast to pass across or near the local islands later tonight.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is located about 300 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The cyclone is moving toward the west at approximately 18 mph and is now packing maximum sustained winds of approximately 45 mph.

“On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening,” according to the NHC update. “After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic,” the NHC said.

Ernesto may experience some additional strengthening as it continues moving toward the local islands.

“Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate [windshear] and [it will be] over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast period,” the NHC explained early on Tuesday morning. “This combination should allow it to strengthen,” the NHC cautioned.

“[However,] intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12 to 24 hours, primarily due to the current lack of [the cyclone’s] organization,” the NHC said.

The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, has noted that impacts from Ernesto will begin as early as Tuesday morning. Gusty winds, rainfall, flash flooding, and hazardous seas can be expected across the islands. The NWS noted that the USVI and Puerto Rico may receive between four and eight inches of rain, and breaking waves could reach up to 17 feet across portions of the waters surrounding the islands.

“A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands,” according to an update from the NWS. “Tropical Storm Ernesto will approach the region late Tuesday, bringing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the region,” the NWS said.

“The areas most impacted will be the Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, and eastern Puerto Rico, [and] a significant risk of flooding is expected, with mudslides likely in areas of steep terrain,” the NWS explained.

“Marine and coastal conditions will start to deteriorate as early as Tuesday morning across the USVI and eastern waters of Puerto, [and] then spread across the rest of the waters through Wednesday night or Thursday,” the NWS added.

In addition to a Tropical Storm Warning, the USVI and Puerto Rico are under a Flood Watch and a High Rip Current Risk. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory will go into effect later this evening and will last until tomorrow night.

The National Weather Service in San Juan, Puerto Rico, will continue to provide updates on the storm, and detailed information can be found on the NWS website.

Weather forecast information, including severe weather alerts, is also available from the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.

Additionally, the Source Weather Page publishes a daily weather forecast and offers readers the opportunity to view weather forecast videos and disaster preparedness video segments.