Official National Weather Service statistics aren't in yet, but a survey of volunteer rain record-keepers shows that 2000 was one of the territory's driest in recent history, especially on St. John and St. Croix.
At Trunk Bay on St. John, where the recent annual average runs about 44 inches, Rafe Boulon collected just 32.4 inches in his home rain gauge for the past year.
"That's the second driest year since I've been keeping records" starting in 1983. His personal low is 27 inches in 1994.
At Annally on St. Croix, former Sen. Frits Lawaetz recorded 40.72 inches of rain in 2000, more than 20 inches less than the two previous years. In the past six years, only one was drier: 1997, when his gauge collected 39.32 inches of rain.
Some St. Thomas 2000 totals also were low. Ellerton Harmer, who has been keeping score at least since 1974, recorded 43.12 inches of rain in 2000 at Estate Bonne Esperance on the West End. The previous year's total was 54.53 inches, and 1998's total was 69.37. Like Boulon on St. John, Harmer reported an even lower count in 1994: just 30.39 inches. And like Lawaetz on St. Croix, his charts also show a dip in 1997 to 38.85 inches.
In one respect the lack of rainfall in 2000 was a good sign; no major storms came through to dump flood-producing torrents on the islands.
However, Boulon is worried about a trend in the past few months. October, November and December were exceptionally dry. He recorded 1.94 inches in December, well below the 3.26 inch average for that month. November was worse: 3.2 inches compared to an average of 7.3 inches, and October was similar, with 2.3 inches when the average is 4.7 inches.
The reports from St. Croix and St. Thomas tell the same story.
"We've had a lot of vegetation growth" in the last two years, due to relatively heavy rains, Boulon said. "I'm worried what will happen if we don't get rain by March" and all that vegetation becomes ready tinder for brush fires.
Lawaetz and Harmer also worry about long-term effects of low rain counts.
Lawaetz, whose family runs Annally Farms, believes that rainfall is slacking off in general. "I feel that the whole world is changing" climatologically, he said. He sees a shift in rainfall patterns as part of larger changes in the atmosphere.
Harmer, an amateur gardener and former bee-keeper, said he has noticed a difference especially in the past decade.
"Since (Hurricane) Hugo (in 1989) I don't think we're catching the rainfall," he said. "It's not enough to keep the watersheds filled up."
The lack of consistent rain has taken its toll on Harmer's garden. For instance, where he used to grow six varieties of avocado, "I'm down to two."
He thinks the theory that the hurricanes destroyed trees and other vegetation needed to attract rain clouds is a plausible one. "If you look at the Norfolk pines, they've been stripped," he said. Trees with branches that used to span out 10 or 12 feet, now are barely four feet wide.
More complete and official statistics will be available from the National Weather Service later this month, according to Eloy Colon, the hydrologist in the San Juan office, the region's headquarters. The NWS gathers its Virgin Islands data from volunteers at a dozen sites throughout the three main islands.
