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Above Average Hurricane Season Predicted, CSU Says

With the June 1 official start of hurricane season a tad over eight weeks away, the Colorado State University forecasting team said Wednesday they expect an above average season.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,” Phil Klotzbach, who authors the forecast with William Gray, said in a press release.

“Typically, El Niño is associated with stronger vertical shear across the tropical Atlantic, creating conditions less conducive for storm formation.”

The team calls for 18 named storms during the hurricane season. Nine of those are expected to become hurricanes and four of those major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. The long-term average from 1981 through 2010 stands at a dozen named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Klotzbach and Gray put numbers on the chances of a storm making landfall at various locations. The indicated a 61 percent chance of a landfall in the Caribbean. The long-term average for last century is 42 percent.

The team predicts that tropical cyclone activity in 2013 will be about 175 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2012 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was 131 percent of the average season.

The team’s annual predictions are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.

The forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions – such as El Niño, Atlantic basin sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures – that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.

Five hurricane seasons since 1900 exhibited oceanic and atmospheric characteristics most similar to those observed in February through March 2013. They are 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996 and 2004. Four out of the five years had above-average hurricane activity.

“All vulnerable coastal residents should make the same hurricane preparations every year, regardless of how active or inactive the seasonal forecast is,” Klotzbach said. “It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season.”

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