Colorado State University hurricane researchers Phil Klotzback and William Gray on Monday upped their April forecast for the 2014 hurricane season from nine named storms to 10, with four of them growing into hurricanes.
The April forecast called for three hurricanes. The meteorologist team expects one of those hurricanes to reach major status with winds of 111 mph or greater. Hurricane season began Sunday and runs through Nov. 30.
However, the team continues to predict a below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, citing the likely development of El Niño conditions and the persistence of cool anomalies in the tropical Atlantic. According to a press release, the researchers increased their predictions because they are unsure how strong the expected El Niño event will be.
In addition, the Atlantic has anomalously warmed since early April, although it is still significantly cooler than in most active hurricane years, the team said in a press release.
“The tropical Atlantic remains cooler than normal, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be relatively high,” said Klotzbach, lead author of the hurricane report. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions. But we have seen some conditions change in a manner to make the season slightly more favorable for storm formation, which prompted us to increase our predictions.”
The team bases its forecasts on more than 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, the warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific called El Niño, and other factors.
“So far, the 2014 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1963, 1997, 2002 and 2009 hurricane seasons, all of which had normal or below-normal hurricane activity,” Klotzbach said.
The team predicts that 2014 tropical cyclone activity will be about 70 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2013’s tropical cyclone activity was about 45 percent of the average season.
They said the probability of a major hurricane hitting somewhere in the Caribbean stands at 32 percent. The average for the last century is 42 percent.
Gray, who founded the report, cautioned coastal residents to take the proper hurricane precautionary measures each year, regardless of the amount of activity forecast.
“It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season,” he said.
In conjunction with the start of hurricane season, AT&T sent out some tips for telecommunications:
– Keep wireless phone batteries charged at all times. In case of a power outage, have alternate means of charging your phone available, such as an extra battery, car charger or device-charging accessory;
– Keep your wireless phone dry. The biggest threat to your device during a hurricane is water, so keep your equipment safe from the elements by storing it in a baggie or some other type of protective covering such as a phone cover;
– Have a family communication plan in place. Designate someone out of the area as a central contact, and make certain that all family members know who to contact if they get separated. Most importantly, practice your emergency plan in advance;
– Program all of your emergency contact numbers and e-mail addresses into your mobile phone. Numbers should include the police department, fire station and hospital as well as your family members;
– Forward your home number to your wireless number in the event of an evacuation. Because call forwarding is based out of the telephone central office, you will get incoming calls from your landline phone even if your local telephone service is disrupted at your home;
– Track the storm and access weather information on your wireless device. Many homes lose power during severe weather. If you have a working wireless device that provides access to the Internet, you can watch weather reports or keep updated with local radar and severe weather alerts;
– Camera phones provide assistance. If you have a camera phone, take, store and send photos — even video clips — of damaged property to your insurance company from your device;
– Take advantage of location-based mapping technology, services that can help you seek evacuation routes or avoid traffic congestion from downed trees or power lines, as well as track a family member’s wireless device in case you get separated.
Additionally, AT&T suggested cell phone users keep lines open for emergencies because network resources will likely be taxed. To help ensure that emergency personnel have open lines, use the following tips.
– Text messaging. During an emergency situation, text messages may go through more quickly than voice calls because they require fewer network resources;
– Be prepared for high call volume. During an emergency, many people are trying to use their phones at the same time. The increased calling volume may create network congestion, leading to “fast busy” signals on your wireless phone or a slow dial tone on your landline phone. If this happens, hang up, wait several seconds and then try the call again. This allows your original call data to clear the network before you try again;
– Keep nonemergency calls to a minimum and limit your calls to the most important ones. If there is severe weather, chances are many people will be attempting to place calls to loved ones, friends and business associates.
